Week 17 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-24 12:45

52%
Win Probability
+8.0
Projected Margin
CI: [-12.0 to +28.0]
2
Boom Potential
Chargers D/ST, Marvin Harrison Jr.
3
Bust Risk
Juwan Johnson (56%), Omarion Hampton (58%), Bucky Irving (48%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Sam Darnold Higher projection (22.0 vs 16.0)
RB1: Start Omarion Hampton over Bucky Irving Higher projection (18.0 vs 15.0)
RB2: Start Bucky Irving over Tyjae Spears Higher projection (15.0 vs 10.0)
WR1: Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba over Marvin Harrison Jr. Higher projection (24.0 vs 16.0)
WR2: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over Tetairoa McMillan Higher projection (16.0 vs 14.0)
D/ST: Start Chargers D/ST over Rams D/ST Higher projection (7.0 vs 5.0)
FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over Jameson Williams Higher projection (14.0 vs 12.0)

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett CIN20.322.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton HOU14.918.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving MIA14.715.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba CAR21.824.0BOOMMEDIUM
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. CIN12.916.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TEN10.211.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Tetairoa McMillan SEA12.314.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers CAR8.410.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST HOU6.37.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Championship week optimization - maximize ceiling for Week 17

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
DROP: Rams D/ST (backup, not needed)

Provides TE insurance for Juwan Johnson. NE @ NYJ has 42.5 total. Henry is steady floor option if Johnson disappoints.

#2 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
DROP: Jayden Reed (GB QB uncertainty)

LAC WR1 with Herbert. Could be FLEX alternative to Jameson Williams if MIN matchup scares you.

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)
DROP: Devin Singletary

With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed becomes SEA WR2. Elite matchup @ CAR. Stack with JSN?

⚠️ Avoid: Keenan Allen, J.K. Dobbins, Garrett Wilson

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Matchup Status (Week 17)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Pending (17)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 20.3 22.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 14.7 15.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 14.9 18.0
Jameson Williams WR WR 13.4 12.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.8 24.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 10.2 11.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR RB/WR/TE 12.9 16.0
Jason Myers K K 8.4 10.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.3 7.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 9.3 6.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE 8.9 10.0
Jayden Reed (bench) WR BE 9.8 10.0
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.4 5.0
Sam Darnold (bench) QB BE 15.9 16.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 12.3 14.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 9.9 10.0
Rashee Rice (bench) WR IR 13.7 ---
0.0 Actual
137.0 LLM Total
122.9 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Dak Prescott QB QB 20.5 18.0
De'Von Achane RB RB 22.3 20.0
James Cook III RB RB 17.2 16.0
Deebo Samuel WR WR 11.9 11.0
Jaylen Waddle WR WR 13.2 14.0
Tyler Warren TE TE 12.1 12.0
DeVonta Smith WR RB/WR/TE 12.4 12.0
Cairo Santos K K 8.4 8.0
Broncos D/ST D/ST D/ST 8.9 8.0
Buccaneers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.7 ---
Chase McLaughlin (bench) K BE 8.0 ---
Chimere Dike (bench) WR BE 10.7 ---
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) RB BE 10.7 ---
Dallas Goedert (bench) TE BE 10.8 ---
Taysom Hill (bench) TE BE 10.4 ---
Trevor Lawrence (bench) QB BE 19.4 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
119.0 Opp LLM Total
127.0 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +18.0 pts

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical). XGB: 19.4% boom (this week - unreliable). CIN is #5 easiest QB matchup (19.33 PPG). 52.5 game total is HIGHEST on slate. Expert consensus: 'Don't pull plug on Jacoby' after Week 16 dud. Mode: BOOM (high-scoring shootout expected). Projection: 22.0 pts (within BOOM range 17-28).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Sam Darnold (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: N/A. CAR is favorable matchup. Mode: MODERATE (backup QB, not starting). Projection: 16.0 pts. BENCH.

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND15.2-11.3-3.8
14ATL14.3-22.3+8.0
13MIN15.2-3.1-12.1
12TEN15.2-17.7+2.5
11LAR15.0-4.3-10.8
10ARI16.6-4.9-11.7
9WSH18.2-27.2+8.9
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU14.9-8.6-6.3
6JAX15.3-20.0+4.7
5TB13.2-27.6+14.4
4ARI13.0-16.1+3.1
3NO14.1-16.7+2.7
2PIT12.8-15.8+3.0
1SF15.3-5.4-9.9
  • Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
  • Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM, 59% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% boom, 48.2% bust (this week). MIA is average RB matchup. 45.5 game total solid. Concern: Bowles wants 'more Rachaad White carries' per Reddit. Mode: MODERATE (volume concern caps upside). Projection: 15.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). Listed as 'RISER' on Reddit Week 17. TEN offense limited. Mode: MODERATE (committee back with limited ceiling). Projection: 10.0 pts (MODERATE range 6-16). BENCH.

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 8.7% boom, 58.8% bust (XGB poorly calibrated - ignore). CIN is #1 EASIEST RB MATCHUP IN NFL (32.01 PPG). Hampton 'feeling best he has felt' post-injury per Reddit. 52.5 game total SMASH. Mode: BOOM (elite matchup overrides XGB). Projection: 18.0 pts (within BOOM range 16-30).

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM, 21% MODERATE, 61% BUST (historical). XGB: 58.4% bust. NYG offense struggling. Mode: BUST (limited role, weak offense). Projection: 6.0 pts (BUST range 0-9). BENCH.

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM, 27% MODERATE, 70% BUST (historical - limited sample post-injury). XGB: 59.9% bust. PIT tough run defense. Mode: MODERATE (still getting reintegrated). Projection: 10.0 pts. BENCH.

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11.4% boom (model under-predicts booms). DK Metcalf SUSPENDED - JSN becomes clear WR1 with massive target share increase. SEA -7 favorites, should dominate CAR. Mode: BOOM (Metcalf absence is game-changer). Projection: 24.0 pts (within BOOM range 22-35).

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 37% MODERATE, 49% BUST (historical - rookie volatility). XGB: 16.9% boom. CIN #27 vs WR (tough). Behind MHJ for targets. Mode: MODERATE (upside limited as WR2 in tough matchup). Projection: 14.0 pts (mid MODERATE range 9-21). BENCH candidate.

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 42.1% boom (rare high boom signal). CIN #27 vs WR (difficult). BUT 52.5 game total creates volume. Heel healthy, full practice. Mode: MODERATE (tough WR matchup tempers boom). Projection: 16.0 pts (within MODERATE range 8-20).

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (BUST)

Reasoning: Rashee Rice (KC) remains in concussion protocol, did not practice Tuesday. "Long shot to clear protocol" per HC Andy Reid. Unlikely to play Week 17 vs DEN. Source: [Draft Sharks](https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy-football-news/81284/rashee-rice-unlikely-to-play-week-17). Mode: BUST (injured). Projection: 0.0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.3% boom, 43.4% moderate. MIN is #32 TOUGHEST WR matchup in NFL (15.22 PPG). DET still favored by 7.5 pts. Mode: MODERATE (elite defense caps ceiling but DET offense still productive). Projection: 12.0 pts (lower end MODERATE range 6-22).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 10% BOOM, 66% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 51.5% bust. GB @ BAL tough matchup. Jordan Love questionable (concussion). Mode: MODERATE (uncertainty at QB). Projection: 10.0 pts. BENCH.

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 66% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM, 45% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.9% boom, 56.6% bust (XGB over-predicts bust). MIA is #2 EASIEST TE MATCHUP (17.58 PPG). TB @ MIA 45.5 total. Mode: MODERATE (great matchup but TE variance high). Projection: 11.0 pts (within MODERATE range 6-14).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: Rashee Rice (KC) remains in concussion protocol, did not practice Tuesday. "Long shot to clear protocol" per HC Andy Reid. Unlikely to play Week 17 vs DEN. Source: [Draft Sharks](https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy-football-news/81284/rashee-rice-unlikely-to-play-week-17). Mode: BUST (injured). Projection: 0.0 pts.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). Listed as 'RISER' on Reddit Week 17. TEN offense limited. Mode: MODERATE (committee back with limited ceiling). Projection: 10.0 pts (MODERATE range 6-16). BENCH.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jameson Williams (WR) - DET vs MIN

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43%

Notes: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.3% boom, 43.4% moderate. MIN is #32 TOUGHEST WR matchup in NFL (15.22 PPG). DET still favored by 7.5 pts. Mode: MODERATE (elite defense caps ceiling but DET offense still productive). Projection: 12.0 pts (lower end MODERATE range 6-22).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 5.4 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 22% BOOM, 39% MODERATE, 40% BUST (historical). XGB: 59% bust. ARI offense capable of scoring. Mode: BUST (inferior to Chargers). Projection: 5.0 pts. BENCH backup D/ST.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DET4.24.0-1.0-5.2
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
  • Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs LV

Projections: ESPN 9.3 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 18% BOOM, 21% MODERATE, 61% BUST (historical). XGB: 58.4% bust. NYG offense struggling. Mode: BUST (limited role, weak offense). Projection: 6.0 pts (BUST range 0-9). BENCH.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 3% BOOM, 27% MODERATE, 70% BUST (historical - limited sample post-injury). XGB: 59.9% bust. PIT tough run defense. Mode: MODERATE (still getting reintegrated). Projection: 10.0 pts. BENCH.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 66% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 10% BOOM, 66% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 51.5% bust. GB @ BAL tough matchup. Jordan Love questionable (concussion). Mode: MODERATE (uncertainty at QB). Projection: 10.0 pts. BENCH.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Sam Darnold (QB) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%

Notes: MC: 25% BOOM, 37% MODERATE (historical). XGB: N/A. CAR is favorable matchup. Mode: MODERATE (backup QB, not starting). Projection: 16.0 pts. BENCH.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND15.2-11.3-3.8
14ATL14.3-22.3+8.0
13MIN15.2-3.1-12.1
12TEN15.2-17.7+2.5
11LAR15.0-4.3-10.8
10ARI16.6-4.9-11.7
9WSH18.2-27.2+8.9
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU14.9-8.6-6.3
6JAX15.3-20.0+4.7
5TB13.2-27.6+14.4
4ARI13.0-16.1+3.1
3NO14.1-16.7+2.7
2PIT12.8-15.8+3.0
1SF15.3-5.4-9.9
  • Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
  • Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
James Cook III RB BUF 16.1 16.0 MODERATE 57% 31% 12% HIGH
Dak Prescott QB DAL 18.6 18.0 MODERATE 51% 34% 15% HIGH
Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 12.1 14.0 MODERATE 49% 36% 15% HIGH
Tyler Warren TE IND 10.1 12.0 MODERATE 41% 40% 19% HIGH
Broncos D/ST D/ST DEN 9.1 8.0 MODERATE 29% 45% 26% MEDIUM
Deebo Samuel WR WSH 11.8 11.0 MODERATE 27% 52% 22% MEDIUM
De'Von Achane RB MIA 18.7 20.0 MODERATE 13% 64% 23% LOW
Cairo Santos K CHI 9.0 8.0 MODERATE 13% 28% 59% LOW
DeVonta Smith WR PHI 13.1 12.0 MODERATE 9% 48% 43% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

⚠️ FLEX Replacement Analysis:
De'Von Achane (RB) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
James Cook III (RB) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
DeVonta Smith (WR) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
Jaylen Waddle (WR) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
Deebo Samuel (WR) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
Tyler Warren (TE) has 0.0 projection - likely OUT
IMPORTANT: FLEX slot accepts RB/WR/TE. Opponent can replace with ANY of these positions from bench or waivers. Best FA options: Hunter Henry TE (10.7), Cooper Kupp WR (9.5), Rashid Shaheed WR (9.5).

James Cook III [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Tyler Warren [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)

Broncos D/ST [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

Deebo Samuel [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)

De'Von Achane [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

DeVonta Smith [OUT - 0.0 proj]: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Championship week optimization - maximize ceiling for Week 17

#1 Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
vs @ NYJ (Good - NYJ vulnerable)
ESPN: 10.7 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Rams D/ST (backup, not needed)

Provides TE insurance for Juwan Johnson. NE @ NYJ has 42.5 total. Henry is steady floor option if Johnson disappoints.

Week 17: Championship insurance play

#2 Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)
vs @ HOU (Average)
ESPN: 8.3 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Jayden Reed (GB QB uncertainty)

LAC WR1 with Herbert. Could be FLEX alternative to Jameson Williams if MIN matchup scares you.

Week 17: Boom potential in competitive game

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)
vs @ CAR (Elite - CAR bad defense)
ESPN: 9.4 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Devin Singletary

With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed becomes SEA WR2. Elite matchup @ CAR. Stack with JSN?

Week 17: Metcalf suspension creates opportunity

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Keenan Allen (WR)
69% bust probability, COLD trend (7.0 rolling avg)
J.K. Dobbins (RB)
47% bust, RJ Harvey emerging
Garrett Wilson (WR)
ON IR - not playing

📋 Quick Summary

  • ADD Hunter Henry, DROP Rams D/ST - TE insurance, don't need 2 D/STs
  • OPTIONAL: ADD Rashid Shaheed, DROP Devin Singletary - Metcalf absence upside
  • HOLD current lineup if comfortable with Jameson Williams vs MIN

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Jameson Williams (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.2
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
ADD Jayden Daniels QB,
Boom%34%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Jordan Love QB,
Boom%27%
Bust%21%
EV16.5
BUST: 26% (2-14) MODERATE: 53% (9-24) BOOM: 21% (18-36)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%27%
Bust%24%
EV8.0
BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)
ADD Bears D/ST D/ST,
Boom%20%
Bust%30%
EV8.4
BUST: 32% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 25% (9-24)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.2 47% 20% 0.0%
Jayden Daniels QB 0.0 34% 30% 0.0%
Jordan Love QB 16.5 27% 21% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.0 27% 24% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 8.4 20% 30% 0.0%
Matt Prater K 7.9 19% 54% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.0 18% 48% 0.0%
Devin Neal RB 9.7 18% 45% 0.0%
Giants D/ST D/ST 6.7 18% 46% 0.0%
Harrison Mevis K 9.0 16% 48% 0.0%
Dolphins D/ST D/ST 8.3 15% 55% 0.0%
Quentin Johnston WR 11.9 15% 39% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.8 15% 48% 0.0%
49ers D/ST D/ST 8.1 14% 51% 0.0%
Rashid Shaheed WR 10.3 14% 53% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Jayden Daniels 0.0 OUT:100% 34% 30%
Jordan Love 16.5 BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21% 27% 21%
Kyler Murray 16.7 BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.2 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Devin Neal 9.7 BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% 18% 45%
Trey Benson 8.6 BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Quinshon Judkins 11.9 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 9% 64%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.4 BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 10.0 BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% 18% 48%
Quentin Johnston 11.9 BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% 15% 39%
Garrett Wilson 14.8 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Rashid Shaheed 10.3 BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% 14% 53%
Keenan Allen 11.7 BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.0 BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% 27% 24%
Hunter Henry 9.7 BUST:45%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:12% 8% 62%
Oronde Gadsden 13.7 BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% 0% 0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Matt Prater 7.9 19% 54%
Harrison Mevis 9.0 16% 48%
Evan McPherson 9.6 9% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Bears D/ST 8.4 20% 30%
Giants D/ST 6.7 18% 46%
Dolphins D/ST 8.3 15% 55%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-24 12:44

Matchup Summary

52.0%

Win Probability

+8.0
Expected Margin
137.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
119.0
Opponent (Proj)
29.9
Margin Std Dev
120.0
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -36.3 pts | Median: +2.8 pts | Ceiling: +40.4 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 22.0 4.4-28.0 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 15.0 5.0-23.3 ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 18.0 3.7-24.2 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 17% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 24.0 6.4-30.1 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 16.0 3.8-21.7 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 12.0 4.2-26.2 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 11.0 2.9-16.6 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 0.9-18.0 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 27% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 5.4-19.1 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 8% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Sam Darnold QB HIGH 16.0 3.9-27.6 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 15% Sam Darnold
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 10.0 2.6-18.0 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 28% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 6.0 0.7-18.0 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 53% Devin Singletary
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 10.0 2.3-15.4 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 43% Isiah Pacheco
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 14.0 4.9-25.3 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Jayden Reed WR HIGH 10.0 3.8-21.8 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 16% Jayden Reed
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 5.0 1.0-18.5 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Rashee Rice WR MED 0.0 6.6-27.7 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Dak Prescott QB MED 18.0 7.5-29.8 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% Dak Prescott
De'Von Achane RB MED 20.0 10.8-30.8 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% De'Von Achane
James Cook III RB MED 16.0 6.2-27.6 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 5% James Cook III
DeVonta Smith WR HIGH 12.0 4.4-25.0 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 14% DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle WR HIGH 14.0 3.0-22.3 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 21% Jaylen Waddle
Deebo Samuel WR HIGH 11.0 3.6-22.5 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 21% Deebo Samuel
Tyler Warren TE HIGH 12.0 3.1-18.1 ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 22% Tyler Warren
Broncos D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 1.0-17.9 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% Broncos D/ST
Cairo Santos K HIGH 8.0 3.9-16.2 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 21% Cairo Santos

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Trevor Lawrence QB HIGH 18.8 8.2-31.6 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 2% Trevor Lawrence
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB HIGH 7.5 1.7-14.2 ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 36% Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Chimere Dike WR HIGH 10.3 2.1-20.4 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% Chimere Dike
Dallas Goedert TE HIGH 11.9 3.8-23.5 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% Dallas Goedert
Taysom Hill TE HIGH 5.4 0.7-13.1 ↑15+: 7% | ↓5-: 74% Taysom Hill
Buccaneers D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.1 1.4-21.0 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 33% Buccaneers D/ST
Chase McLaughlin K HIGH 9.2 2.8-16.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 25% Chase McLaughlin

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.3 59% @ 14.2 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.7 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 27% @ 20.1 43% @ 12.0 31% @ 5.2 12.1
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.0 43% @ 12.1 32% @ 5.2 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.3 44% @ 11.9 31% @ 6.5 11.8
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.7 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.4 44% @ 15.6 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 15.0 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST6.37.0MODERATE55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR12.916.0MODERATE42.3%35.3%22.4%
Rashee RiceWR13.70.0BUST24.9%45.3%29.8%
Jason MyersK8.410.0MODERATE23.2%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE10.211.0MODERATE18.8%25.1%56.0%
Tyjae SpearsRB9.910.0MODERATE17.6%44.8%37.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR12.314.0MODERATE16.9%61.6%21.5%
Jacoby BrissettQB20.322.0BOOM13.5%50.0%36.4%
Sam DarnoldQB15.916.0MODERATE13.3%42.9%43.8%
Bucky IrvingRB14.715.0MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jayden ReedWR9.810.0MODERATE12.9%35.6%51.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.412.0MODERATE12.6%44.9%42.6%
Isiah PachecoRB8.910.0MODERATE11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR21.824.0BOOM11.4%66.0%22.6%
Rams D/STD/ST5.45.0BUST10.6%29.7%59.7%
Devin SingletaryRB9.36.0BUST9.6%30.1%60.4%
Omarion HamptonRB14.918.0BOOM9.0%33.3%57.7%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1861.3 1676.5 +184.8 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1771.1 1765.4 +5.7 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1822.8 1558.6 +264.2 0.0 vs 0.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1759.9 1725.0 +35.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1705.9 1731.9 -26.0 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1515.0 1664.9 -149.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1730.5 1674.7 +55.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1664.9 1778.5 -113.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1664.4 1646.9 +17.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1653.5 1752.0 -98.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1584.0 1689.6 -105.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1697.9 1767.4 -69.5 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Valued Customers
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters 0.0 @ 0.0 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 17 Championship Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates

  • DK Metcalf (SEA) SUSPENDED - Out rest of regular season. MASSIVE boost for JSN target share!
  • Omarion Hampton "feeling the best he has felt" post-injury - Full confidence for ARI @ CIN
  • Jacoby Brissett support - Expert: "Don't pull the plug on Jacoby" after Week 16 dud vs ATL
  • Tyjae Spears listed as Week 17 RISER - Coming off strong Week 16
  • Todd Bowles wants more Rachaad White - Potential concern for Bucky Irving volume
  • Rashee Rice remains on IR - Concussion, not returning this season

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

Game Total Spread Implications
ARI @ CIN 52.5 CIN -7.5 SMASH SPOT for Brissett/Hampton/MHJ - highest total
TB @ MIA 45.5 MIA -5.5 Solid for Irving, but TB may trail = less rushing
SEA @ CAR 42.5 SEA -7.0 JSN benefits from Metcalf suspension
DET @ MIN 43.5 DET -7.5 Jameson Williams vs #32 WR defense - AVOID
LAC @ HOU 39.5 HOU -1.5 Low total, risky D/ST spot

Defense Rankings Deep Dive

SMASH MATCHUPS: - Omarion Hampton @ CIN: #1 EASIEST RB matchup (32.01 PPG allowed) - Jacoby Brissett @ CIN: #5 easiest QB matchup (19.33 PPG allowed) - Juwan Johnson @ MIA: #2 easiest TE matchup (17.58 PPG allowed)

AVOID MATCHUPS: - Jameson Williams @ MIN: #32 TOUGHEST WR matchup (15.22 PPG) - START CONCERN - Chargers D/ST vs HOU: #32 toughest D/ST matchup

Game Stacking Correlation

TB @ MIA CORRELATION: - Our players: Bucky Irving (RB), Juwan Johnson (TE) - Opponent: De'Von Achane (RB), Jaylen Waddle (WR) - ~73 pts combined exposure in this game

Weather

  • ARI @ CIN: 63F, 18% rain, 10 mph winds - manageable
  • TB @ MIA: 78F, ideal conditions
  • SEA @ CAR: 57F, no concerns

Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN: Brissett, Hampton, JSN, Myers SOLID: Irving, MHJ, Johnson QUESTIONABLE: Jameson Williams (vs MIN), Chargers D/ST (vs HOU) BENCH: Darnold, McMillan, Reed, Rams D/ST

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Positive Buzz: Omarion Hampton, Tyjae Spears

Negative Buzz: All Chiefs players, Michael Wilson

Mixed Buzz: Jacoby Brissett

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

12.1
Our Team MAE
17 players
13.2
Opponent MAE
9 players
26
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 12.5
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 21.8 24.0 0.0 -24.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 20.3 22.0 0.0 -22.0
Opponent RB De'Von Achane 0.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 14.9 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Opponent QB Dak Prescott 0.0 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 12.9 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team QB Sam Darnold 15.9 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Opponent RB James Cook III 0.0 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 14.7 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 12.3 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent WR Jaylen Waddle 0.0 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.4 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent WR DeVonta Smith 0.0 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Opponent TE Tyler Warren 0.0 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 10.2 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Opponent WR Deebo Samuel 0.0 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 9.9 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.4 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 8.9 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 9.8 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Opponent D/ST Broncos D/ST 0.0 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Opponent K Cairo Santos 0.0 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 6.3 7.0 0.0 -7.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 9.3 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.4 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 13.7 0.0 0.0 +0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2
Our Team MAE
17 players
4.3
Opponent MAE
9 players
8.4
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 16.0 +16.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 13.5 +13.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 21.5 +11.5
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 15.0 3.8 -11.2
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 11.0 +11.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 10.6 -10.4
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 22.0 12.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 12.0 2.4 -9.6
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 4.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 16.9 +7.9
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 7.1 -6.9
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 13.0 19.3 +6.3
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 13.0 7.1 -5.9
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 5.0 +5.0
Opponent RB Michael Carter 11.0 - 6.5 -4.5
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 4.0 +4.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.6 - 2.0 -3.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 13.0 16.5 +3.5
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 4.0 5.6 +1.6
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 - 22.8 -1.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 1.0 +1.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 13.2 -0.2
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 23.6 23.6 +0.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 2.0 2.0 +0.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.7 4.0 4.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 14.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
58%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 13.3 pts
90th percentile 23.8 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 24.0 pts
ESPN 21.8 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.4 pts
Median (50th) 17.9 pts
90th percentile 30.2 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 12.3 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.8 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 24.9 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 12.9 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.8 pts
Median (50th) 11.4 pts
90th percentile 21.8 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 13.7 pts
BUST
37%
MODERATE
24%
BOOM
39%
10th percentile 6.6 pts
Median (50th) 15.8 pts
90th percentile 27.5 pts
MC (Historical)
39% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 9.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.5 pts
90th percentile 18.3 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 14.9 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 24.0 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.5 pts
Median (50th) 11.4 pts
90th percentile 19.1 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 10.2 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 8.7 pts
90th percentile 16.5 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
19% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 13.4 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.4 pts
90th percentile 26.2 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 5.4 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.0 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 9.3 pts
BUST
61%
MODERATE
21%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 0.6 pts
Median (50th) 4.3 pts
90th percentile 18.0 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.3 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 7.0 pts
ESPN 6.3 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 1.0 pts
Median (50th) 9.0 pts
90th percentile 18.1 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 5.6 pts
90th percentile 15.3 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jayden Reed (WR)
Jayden Reed distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 9.8 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
66%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 10.4 pts
90th percentile 21.6 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Sam Darnold (QB)
Sam Darnold distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 15.9 pts
BUST
38%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 4.0 pts
Median (50th) 15.1 pts
90th percentile 27.2 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
De'Von Achane (RB)
De'Von Achane distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
4%
MODERATE
78%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 11.0 pts
Median (50th) 16.9 pts
90th percentile 31.5 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
James Cook III (RB)
James Cook III distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.5 pts
90th percentile 27.4 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
57% BOOM
DeVonta Smith (WR)
DeVonta Smith distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 11.6 pts
90th percentile 24.9 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jaylen Waddle (WR)
Jaylen Waddle distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
44%
10th percentile 3.1 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 22.0 pts
MC (Historical)
44% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
49% BOOM
Deebo Samuel (WR)
Deebo Samuel distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
31%
10th percentile 3.5 pts
Median (50th) 9.9 pts
90th percentile 22.9 pts
MC (Historical)
31% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Tyler Warren (TE)
Tyler Warren distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 3.2 pts
Median (50th) 9.3 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
41% BOOM
Dak Prescott (QB)
Dak Prescott distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 7.5 pts
Median (50th) 18.3 pts
90th percentile 29.9 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
51% BOOM
Broncos D/ST (D/ST)
Broncos D/ST distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 18.0 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
29% BOOM
Cairo Santos (K)
Cairo Santos distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN - pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
30%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 16.2 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM